James B. Duke Professor
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| Allen C. Kelley James B. Duke Professor |
His research has focused on the consequences of demographic change in the Third World (e.g., impacts of rapid population growth on economic growth and structural change, and urbanization). This research has resulted in several books using computable general equilibrium models, as well as case studies of Japan and Egypt. Recent research has been on the determinants of Kenyan population trends (mainly fertility), urbanization in Africa, and the evolution of population ideas since 1950. Over the years Professor Kelley has also researched and written on the determinants of student learning at the undergraduate level, including evaluations of TIPS (Teaching Information Processing System), a computerized instructional system he developed.
"Demand Patterns, Demographic Change, and Economic Growth,"
Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1969
"Markov Processes, Economic Analysis and Migration" (with LW
Weiss), Econometrica, 1969
"Demographic Cycles and Economic Growth: The Long Swing
Reconsidered," Journal of Economic History, 1969
"Economic Efficiency and the Distribution of Benefits from
College Instruction" (with WL Hansen and BA Weisbrod),
American Economic Review, 1970
Dualistic Economic Development: Theory and History
(with JG Williamson and RJ Cheetham), U. of Chicago Press,
1972
"Population Growth, the Dependency Rate, and the Pace of
Economic Development," Population Studies, 1973
"Bilharzia, Demographic Change and Economic Growth," in
Disease and Economic Development, U. of Wisconsin Press,
1973
Lessons from Japanese Development: An Analytical Economic
History (with JG Williamson), U. of Chicago Press, 1974
"The Role of Population in Models of Economic Growth,"
American Economic Review, 1974
"TIPS and Technical Change in Classroom Instruction,"
American Economic Review, 1974
"The Student as Utility Maximizer," Journal of Economic
Education, 1975
"Demographic Impacts on Demand Patterns in the Low-Income
Setting," Economic Development and Cultural Change,
1981
Population and Development in Rural Egypt (with AM
Khalifa and NM El-Khorazaty), Duke U. Press, 1982
"The Newspaper Can Be an Effective Teaching Tool," Journal
of Economic Education, 1983
What Drives Third World City Growth? A Dynamic General
Equilibrium Approach (with JG Williamson), Princeton U.
Press, 1984
"Population Growth and Economic Development: A Revisionist
Interpretation," Population and Development Review, 1986
"Australia: The Coming of Age," Australian Economic
Review, 1988
"Economic Consequences of Population Change in the Third
World," Journal of Economic Literature, 1988
"Population Pressures, Saving and Investment in the Third World:
Some Puzzles," Economic Development and Cultural Change,
1988
Population, Food, and Rural Development (co-editor),
Clarendon Press, 1989
"The B- Economics Major: Can and Should We Do Better?" (with
John Siegfried, et al.), American Economic Review,
1991
"Human Development Index: Handle With Care," Population and
Development
Review, 1991
"Aggregate Population and Economic Growth Correlations: The Role
of the Components of Demographic Change" (with RM Schmidt),
Demography, 1995
"Revisionism Revisited: An Essay on the Population Debate in
Historical Perspective," in Population and the Economy
(Nobel Symposium in Economics), 1995
The Impact of Population Growth on Well-being in Developing
Countries (with DA Ahlburg and KO Mason), Springer-Verlag,
1996
"Saving, Dependency and Development" (with R.M. Schmidt), Journal of Population Economics, 1996
"The Impacts of Rapid Population Growth on Poverty, Food Production, and the Environment," in United Nations, 1999 World Population Monitoring Report, 2000
"Population and Economic Development," in Encyclopedia of the Social and Behavioral Sciences," forthcoming
Population Does Matter: Demography, Growth, and Poverty in the Developing World
(edited with Nancy Birdsall and Steven Sinding), Oxford University Press, forthcoming, 2001
"Economic and Demographic Change: A Synthesis of Models, Findings, and Perspectives," in Birdsall, Kelley and Sinding, Population Does Matter: Demography, Growth, and Poverty in the Developing World, forthcoming, 2001
"The Population Debate in Historical Perspective: Revisionism Revisited," in Birdsall, Kelley and Sinding, Population Does Matter: Demography, Growth, and Poverty in the Developing World, forthcoming, 2001
"Population and Income Change: Recent Evidence"
"The Consequences of Population Growth on Human Resource
Development: The Case of Education"
"Toward a Cure for the Myopia and Tunnel Vision of the Population
Debate: A Dose of Historical Perspective"
"Population and Resources"
"The Impacts of Rapid Population Growth on Poverty, Food Production, and the
Environment"
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