On July 1, 1994, V. Kerry Smith joined the Duke Faculty as Arts and Sciences Professor of Environmental Economics with a joint appointment in the Department of Economics and the School of the Environment. Kerry Smith brings to Duke a combination of excellence in environmental economics and natural resource economics. He is teaching a course on the Economics of Non-Renewable Resources in the Department of Economics, and will be developing a graduate field sequence in environmental economics.
Smith previously served as University Distinguished Professor at North Carolina State University. He continues to reside in Raleigh with his wife Pauline, a teacher's aide in the first grade at Our Lady of Lourdes School. They have two children, Shelley and Tim.
Professor Smith has also held positions as Centennial Professor of Economics at Vanderbilt University and Professor of Economics at the University of North Carolina. His professional activities have included service as the President of the Southern Economics Association, President of the Association for Environmental and Resource Economists, and co-chair of the first EPA Science Advisory Board on environmental economics and policy.
For a career of distinguished research, Kerry Smith has been awarded the Frederick Waugh medal of the American Agricultural Economics Association. He was instrumental in establishing some of the guiding theoretical principles for non-market valuations in articles in the Southern Economic Journal and the American Economic Review. He has published papers in almost all major economics journals. Smith is also engaged in survey research with respect to the performance of risk communication policies and has devoted substantial effort to assessing individual reactions to risk. Currently he is studying the tradable permits program for environmental externalities.
Kerry Smith received his A.B. in Economics and Mathematics from Rutgers University and his Ph.D. in Economics from Rutgers University.
Pietro Peretto, a new Assistant Professor in the Department, comes to us from Yale University where he took his Ph.D. in May 1994. A native of Milan, Italy, Peretto received his Bachelor's Degree magna cum laude from the Universita Bocconi, also in Milan. His honors and awards include a University Fellowship from Yale, 1990 - 1994, and distinction in his oral examination at Yale in May 1992.
Peretto specializes in Macroeconomics and Industrial Organization. His expertise lies in growth theory and the economics of technological change. His dissertation, "Essays on Market Structure and Economic Growth," integrates into endogenous growth theory the key insights on technological progress and market structure developed in Industrial Organization.
Although Macroeconomics has largely left market structure out of its investigation of the idea that technological progress is a driving force of growth and welfare, a long time ago Schumpeter emphasized with particular energy that the structure of the market is the key determinant of the purposeful investment in the costly R&D of profit-seeking firms. In his dissertation, Peretto discusses the fundamental characteristics of the industry that determine R&D investment, distinguishes them from the more traditional measures of market structure--like the concentration rate or the number of firms--and studies the economic mechanisms through which they affect economic growth.
Peretto has published several articles, among them "Technology, Learning Opportunity and International Competitiveness: Some Empirical Evidence with Panel Data," in Giornale degli Economisti, May 1990, and "Sources, Appropriability, and Directions of Technological Change: USA and Italy," with Franco Malerba and Alberto Heimler, in BNL Quarterly Review, June 1993. His working papers include "An Intertemporal Model of Market Structure, Innovation, and Endogenous Growth," September 1991; "A General Equilibrium Model of R&D Spillovers, Market Structure and Economic Growth," July 1992; and "Technological Progress, Entry, and the Dynamics of Market Structure and Economic Growth," September 1993.
In addition to revising chapters of the dissertation for publication, Peretto will turn his attention to a research project on the sectoral and international characteristics of manufacturing firms' innovative activities. He is working on this project along with Franco Malerba and Luigi Orsenigo of Universita Bocconi, Milan. Preliminary results of this project are reported in their working paper "Persistence of Innovative Activities, Sectoral Patterns of Innovation, and International Specialization," June 1994. In a strongly empirical and descriptive approach they focus on the role of two fundamental dimensions of the process of innovation--persistence and heterogeneity of innovative activities at the firm level--in determining the relevant features of technological change in different industries and countries. Subsequently, they explore the relationship between the patterns of innovative activities, their determinants and the technological specialization of countries.
Professor Peretto is teaching the graduate Advanced Macroeconomics class this Fall and will team-teach the graduate Macroeconomic Theory class in the Spring semester. He has considerable teaching experience both at Yale and Bocconi. As a T.A. at Yale he taught in a graduate Macroeconomic Theory class and an introductory Microeconomics class. He also lectured in a special course on the "Economics of Technological Change" at Bocconi.
At the ASSA meetings in Washington in January 1995, the Department will host a reception in honor of T. Dudley Wallace as he retires after twenty years of service at Duke. We hope that this reception will allow many of his former students to honor him. The reception will be held on Friday, January 6, from 5:30 - 8:00 p.m. in the Delaware B Room of the Sheraton Washington Hotel. All are invited to attend.
Lin received his M.A. in political economy from Peking University in June 1982 and his Ph.D. in 1986 from the University of Chicago. After one year as a Post-Doctoral Fellow at the Economic Growth Center, Yale University, Lin became the first Western-trained economist to return to China. Since 1987 he has remained active not only in China's policy debates, but also in academic research.
Justin Lin's publications continue to bring him honors and awards. His 1992 AER article on "Rural Reforms and Agricultural Growth" was awarded the 1993 Policy Article Prize by the International Center for Food and Agricultural Policy at the University of Minnesota. His book Institution, Technology, and Rural Development (Shanghai: Shanghai Sanlian Shudian, 1992) received the 1992 Sun Yefang Prize, the highest honor for economists in China. And the Journal of Comparative Economics published in its June 1993 issue a symposium on Lin's 1990 JPE article on "Collectivization and China's Agricultural Crisis in 1959-1961."
Professor George Tauchen was elected as a Fellow of the Econometric Society in December 1994. In making the award, the Fellows of the Society, who nominate new members, cited Tauchen's "fundamental contributions to econometrics, finance, and computational methods." Currently there are only 490 Fellows throughout the world, with an average of just twelve members nominated each year.
Tauchen also was named a Fellow of the American Statistical Association (ASA) in a ceremony at the ASA annual meeting in San Francisco in August 1993. The designation of Fellow is a singular honor and for more than 75 years has signified an individual's outstanding professional contribution and leadership in the field of statistical science.
The American Statistical Association, which was founded in Boston in 1839, is one of the country's oldest professional associations. Early members included Florence Nightingale, Alexander Graham Bell, Herman Hollerith, Andrew Carnegie, and Martin Van Buren. ASA, with a membership of 19,000, is a professional association of statisticians, quantitative scientists, and users of statistics. ASA members serve in government, industry, and academia, applying their talents to a wealth of scientific applications in the medical, physical, economic, and social sciences.
Professor Vladimir Treml was honored with the Distinguished Senior Scholars Award in March 1994 from The Southern Conference on Slavic Studies. The conference is the oldest association of teachers and researchers in Soviet/Slavic affairs in the United States. Treml's award was presented in Norfolk, Virginia.
Philip Cook has been named ITT/Terry Sanford Professor of Public Policy in Trinity College. He continues to hold a professorship in Economics as well. Cook also received the Kenneth J. Arrow Award for the best article published in 1993 in the field of health economics. Michael Moore of Fuqua shares the award with Cook for their winning article, "Drinking and Schooling," published in the Journal of Health Economics. The award was presented on November 2 at the APHA meeting.
For the third year in a row, W. Kip Viscusi has received the Kulp Memorial Prize, the book-of-the-year award from the American Risk and Insurance Association, for Fatal Trade-Offs: Public and Private Responsibilities for Risk, Oxford University Press.
The year was 1982. The personal computer revolution was in its first turn.
Bill Yohe was looking for something new in his career. He'd been teaching money and banking and macroeconomics courses at Duke for 25 years. "I was fifty-years-old," Yohe said. "I was bored with the way things were going."
So he bought himself a new computer--a TRS 80 model 3. It was, at the time, the "best available" personal computer, even though it had only 16 kilobytes of RAM and relied on tapes instead of floppy disks for file storage.
At the time, Yohe's dreams were grandiose, although his methods were simple. He wanted to use the computer to help explain to students the workings of the economy.
So he taught himself how to program, using BASIC, and he wrote a monetary model. The model permitted the user to change the values of different macroeconomic variables to see what effects those changes would have on output.
The users were students in his class. The students came to his office to run the model. He discovered the optimal mix was two students per session.
Yohe was clearly a pioneer in the field of computer-aided instruction. "Inadvertently, I invented the laboratory method before anybody else was thinking about it," Yohe said, matter-of-factly.
Yohe wasn't reluctant to share his findings. In 1985, he joined the Social Sciences Microcomputer Review, then housed at North Carolina State University.
Meanwhile, Little, Brown, the high-regarded publishing house from Boston, contacted Yohe about publishing the course materials. They offered him a contract, and production was set to begin in 1987.
Unfortunately, Little, Brown merged with Time-Warner in 1987, putting the division handling Yohe's contract with its high school text publishers, Scott Foresman. "Scott had no idea what software was," Yohe said, "so they put the project on delay."
Although the public production of the courseware was on hold, Yohe continued to develop the methodology. He converted the program from BASIC to a spreadsheet-oriented routine based on Borland's Quattro. He wrote a Macintosh version to go along with the DOS version. And he fought Prentice- Hall in order to get released from his contractual obligations, so that he could try to distribute it elsewhere.
Yohe branched out into building interactive historical models, modeling the American economy during both World Wars and the Great Depression. His work caught the attention of one of England's top publishing firms, Basil Blackwell. "Blackwell was trying to get an American operation going," Yohe said. "They wanted to do something innovative."
Blackwell and Yohe were a good match. Production was scheduled for 1993.
Then things hit one more snag. Borland lost a lawsuit to Lotus over a copyright infringement between Quattro and Lotus's 1-2-3, and suddenly Yohe found himself trying to produce for market a program based on a compiler for which he could get no licensing agreement.
Fortunately, Bill Yohe isn't averse to hard work, nor is he easily deterred by bad fortune. He adopted another spreadsheet compiler, Baler, and put the final pieces of the puzzle together.
Yohe's book, Interactive Money and Banking: A Microcomputer Approach, complete with computer program disk, hit the bookstores in October 1994. It is a test of the market for a whole line of computer-assisted instruction planned by Basil Blackwell.
In the meantime, Yohe is not resting on his laurels. He is now engaged in another package, developing an intermediate macroeconomics course along with Guy Judge, editor of the English journal, Computers in Higher Education Economics Review. He is hoping for release by Spring of 1996.
As a part of the Department's effort to revamp the core undergraduate curriculum, Professor Daniel Graham has been experimenting with a problem-based learning approach in his section of intermediate microeconomics this Fall. The basic idea has been to set the students interesting problems and to provide them with opportunities to acquire the information and tools needed to solve them.
"In practice," says Professor Graham, "problem-based learning is more novel than you might suspect. Lectures, for example, are rarely used for information transfer. Students rely instead on the text and other assigned readings." Material that might otherwise have been covered in lectures is provided as "electronic notes" over Duke's computer network. Calculus is emphasized and the students are encouraged to use a symbolics software program. Both Mathematica and Maple are available on the Duke network and, thanks to a site license obtained this Fall, free personal copies of Mathematica are now available as well.
Students are encouraged to work together on assignments and an electronic mail group has been established for the course. Any e-mail message sent to "149-all" is automatically delivered to everyone in the class including Professor Graham. Traffic on this information byway has been heavy this Fall--over 500 messages already from a class of 22 students. Students typically raise questions about assigned readings and problems or respond to the questions of others. "These replies," says Graham, "are invariably kind and often more eloquent than those which I might have provided myself." Since many of these messages are posted and answered in the wee small hours of the morning, this "Electronic Discussion Group" is truly open 24 hours a day.
One of the serendipitous effects of the e-mail traffic is that Graham is forewarned before class about lingering difficulties and can focus upon these issues in class. Most of the class period, however, is devoted to the blackboard presentation of the solutions to the assigned problems by randomly selected students. Since none of the students is predisposed to think that another student is more likely to have gotten the right answer, the discussion is often quite lively with many refrains of "Why?" and "How do you know that?" As Professor Graham notes, "It is hard to find a passive listener at such times--quite a contrast from the soporific hoards my lectures once induced."
Professor Ed Tower recently developed a new course for advanced undergraduates, "Current Issues in International and Development Economics." Students enrolled in this seminar will learn to use the analytical tools gleaned in previous courses to research current global issues. Topics will vary each semester and will be selected from the following: the politics of protection, managed trade versus the GATT, agriculture in the world trading system, North American free trade area, the European Community, international policy coordination, taxing the multinational firm, policy reform and project selection in less developed countries, and international trade frictions. Each seminar session will be student led.
Since Spring 1993 Tower has also been working on teaching intermediate macroeconomics as a laboratory course. The course meets in lecture as other sections do, but in addition there is a lab section for an hour each week. Four teams of two students work with each lab instructor, who may be either a graduate student or an undergraduate who did particularly well in the course in a previous semester. Professor Tower borrowed the idea of undergraduate lab instructors from a physics course he took as an undergraduate, which employed students in much the same way.
The idea is to train students to use a spreadsheet like Lotus or Excel to graph economic relationships and perform multiple regressions. Each team of students download data on their favorite country from the IMF's International Financial Statistics, available on CDRom in the library, onto their disks. The data is then used to test hypotheses about how the chosen economy works. Some sample labs are: Is expected inflation fully reflected in nominal interest rates? Does the Phillips Curve exist either in plain or expectations-augmented form? What does the demand for money look like? What inflation rate maximizes the government revenue from inflation? Are the two deficits twins? What does the American demand for imports look like?
One of the texts is Malkiel's A Random Walk Down Wall Street. Students use the Value Line Investment Survey and the Morningstar Mutual Fund Reports to test hypotheses about how to pick winners.
Student response to the course implies that Duke students are willing to work. The section is fully enrolled, even though it requires more work than other sections. Teams are asked increasingly open-ended questions as the course proceeds, with the final project being one proposed by the team.
Since so much of macroeconomics is evolving and the interesting economic issues are the unresolved ones, Tower feels that it is important to give students the tools to discriminate between hypotheses. Most undergraduate economists want to use economics as a way to understand the world, and be useful to an employer. It is important to give students a sense of where to look for data, an understanding of how to use data to test hypotheses, training in writing up results crisply, and the confidence to frame questions and provide answers in a cogent way.
For a set of the labs and the reading list in the course, please email Tower at Tower@econ.duke.edu.
Carol Mansfield of the School of the Environment and Nikolaos Vettas of the Fuqua School were extended secondary appointments this Fall as Assistant Professors of Economics. Mansfield received her Ph.D. from Maryland this summer, having graduated from Yale University with a B.A. in Economics in 1986. She received the Resources for the Future Joseph L. Fisher Award in 1993-94 and held Maryland's Department of Economics Dissertation Fellowship in 1992-93 and the Graduate Fellowship, 1989-90 and 1990-91. Mansfield brings to her work in environmental economics an industrial organization/regulation perspective. Her dissertation is on "Despairing Over Disparities: An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship Between Willingness-to-Pay and Willingness-to-Accept."
Vettas is a 1994 graduate of the University of Pennsylvania. He received his M.A. there in 1992 and his B.A. from the University of Athens in 1989. His honors include the 1994 Young Economist Essay Competition Award, given by the European Association for Research in Industrial Economics, and the Hiram C. Haney Fellowship Award in Economics, University of Pennsylvania, 1993. Vettas has published a working paper on "Demand and Supply in New Markets: Diffusion with Bilateral Learning." His dissertation is on "New Markets, Learning and Industry Dynamics."
The Department of Economics is a co-organizer of a new seminar series on Rational Choice sponsored by the Dean of Arts and Sciences. This interdisciplinary seminar will bring on campus high-caliber scholars from the disciplines of Statistics, Decision Sciences, Economics, Political Science, Sociology, and Philosophy. A broad range of themes will be addressed, from conceptual issues in the modelling of rational choice to empirical applications and experimentation. The first presentation was given in November by Professor Charles Plott from the California Institute of Technology on "General Equilibrium: Macroeconomics and Money in a Laboratory Experimental Environment." Approximately seven meetings are scheduled for the Spring; featured speakers will include David Kahneman, Thomas Schelling, David Kreps, and John Ferejohn.
Other organizers of the seminar include the Departments of Philosophy, Political Science, and Sociology, and the Institute of Statistics and Decision Sciences, the Institute of Public Policy, and the Fuqua School of Business. For more information, contact Hervé Moulin.
The Program in Pharmaceuticals and Health Economics, directed by Professor Henry Grabowski, has had an extremely productive year in its research activities. Grabowski announced recently that eleven papers were published or accepted for publication during the past year, including new analyses of the effects of health care reform and cost containment on pharmaceutical innovation. In addition, members of the Program have forthcoming studies on economies of scale in pharmaceutical R&D, analyses of product liability effects across different drug categories, and new work on cost-effectiveness studies of pharmaceuticals.
This year three students completed their Ph.D. dissertations in the Program and each had excellent placements. Norma Gavin (An Empirical Analysis of Employer Sponsored Health Insurance) is at Systemetrics, Inc., in Washington, D.C.; Daniel Mullins (Medicaid Drug Rebates, Pharmaceutical Prices and Unintended Consequences of Health Policy Reform) is an Assistant Professor at UNC; and Christopher Taylor (An Inquiry Into Firm Profitability Using the Cash Recovery Method: An Application to Pharmaceuticals) is at the International Trade Commission.
The Program also had extensive interaction with public policymakers this year. Three major government reports were issued on different public policy questions relating to pharmaceuticals over this period. All of these reports--emanating from the GAO, OTA, and CBO--were modeled on the Program's prior analyses of the industry. For two of these agencies, Program members also supplied extensive data series and assisted directly in the structuring of their analyses.
We welcome to our faculty this year three visitors who are helping to round out the department's curriculum offerings.
Jeff Biddle comes to us from Michigan State University, where he is currently Associate Professor of Economics. Specializing in labor economics and the history of economic thought, he received his Ph.D. in 1985 from Duke. His work has appeared in scholarly journals including The Journal of Political Economy, The Journal of Labor Economics, and History of Political Economy. His current research interests include the life and work of Wesley Mitchell and the impact of physical attractiveness on labor market outcomes. Biddle is teaching a principles course, Labor Economics: Analysis and Measurement, History of Economic Thought, and Econometrics.
Gregory La Blanc will join the department for the Spring semester, when he will offer a section on Corporate Finance. He is a Ph.D. candidate in the Department of History at the University of Pennsylvania, completing his dissertation on "Essays on Mercantilism and Corporatist Public Finance." His educational background is broad, including a first degree in Astrophysics, legal and policy studies at the graduate level, and requirements for an MBA at the Wharton School.
Michael S. Lawlor, Visiting Associate Professor this academic year, has been on the faculty at Wake Forest University in Economics since 1986. He has also been a Faculty Visitor at Cambridge University and a Visiting Fellow of Clare Hall College, Cambridge, in 1991. He received his Ph.D. from Iowa State University in 1986. His current research interests--the history of monetary economics and the economics of financial institutions--are well represented by two volumes he has recently co-edited: The History of Political Economy 1994 Annual Supplement, "New Perspectives on Keynes" (with Allin Cottrell, Duke University Press, 1994); and The Causes and Consequences of Depository Institution Failure (with John Wood, Kluwer Academic Press, forthcoming 1995). Lawlor is offering courses on the History of Economic Thought and Monetary Economics in the Fall semester, and Micro-principles in the Spring.
Kip Viscusi continues to serve as the Chief Editor of the Journal of Risk and Uncertainty. This journal, which he founded in 1988, has made tremendous progress based on the SSCI citation rankings. Among all of the journals in business and finance, it currently ranks number 5 out of 37 in citations. Among all 128 journals in economics, the Journal of Risk and Uncertainty is ranked number 17, behind journals such as The Economist and American Economic Review, but ahead of such prestigious publications as the Review of Economics and Statistics, The Economic Journal, RAND Journal of Economics, International Economic Review, Journal of Public Economics, Journal of Economic Theory, HOPE, and many other highly regarded and long established journals. No other journal established since 1980 has a higher citation ranking than that of the Journal of Risk and Uncertainty.
Viscusi also serves on the editorial council of Regulation, on the Board of Editors of the American Economic Review, as an Associate Editor of International Review of Law and Economics, as an Associate Editor of Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory, as the founding editor of a book series on risk and uncertainty for Kluwer Academic Publishers, on the Editorial Council for Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, as an Associate Editor of the Journal of Risk and Insurance, and as an Associate Editor of the Review of Economics and Statistics.
Our scholars-in-residence this year come from a host of countries and bring with them wide-ranging research interests:
Grant Fleming, Lecturer in Economic History at The Australian National University, is conducting research on the economic thought of Sir Anthony Musgrave and on the Field-Musgrave Papers.
Chen Guanghan, Associate Professor in the Department of Economics of Lingnan College, Zhongshan University, is working on international trade and development.
Glenn Hueckel, Associate Professor in the Department of Economics at Purdue University, is pursuing topics in the history of economic thought.
Francesca Sanna-Randaccio, Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Rome, spent the months of August and September working on non tariff barriers and direct foreign investments.
Russell Ross (Duke Ph.D., 1977), Senior Lecturer in Economics at the University of Sydney, Australia, is spending the Fall semester here working on two projects: completion of a textbook on the Australian labor market and refining a measure of labor underutilization.
Janet Seiz, Assistant Professor in the Department of Economics at Grinnell College, is exploring how American economic theorists have dealt with race and gender issues in the post-WWII period.
Neil Skaggs, Associate Professor in the Department of Economics at Illinois State University, is conducting research on economic thought.
Begoña Subiza and Josep E. Peris, Lecturers in Economics at the University of Alicante, Spain, are conducting research in mathematical economics.
John Winfrey, Professor of Economics at Washington and Lee University, continues work on various social issues and on the value theories of John Stuart Mill.
This past Spring Professors Treml and Leitzel started informal monthly "brown-bag" lunches for faculty and graduate students interested in post-Soviet development and issues. The purpose of the lunches was to raise specific issues, distribute and discuss drafts of research papers in preparation, and share information. Four of the participants had begun teaching new courses, some experimental, at Duke and had regularly reported on their progress. The lunches are regularly attended by 3-5 faculty, 6-8 graduate, and 2-3 undergraduate students (the latter by invitation) in economics, sociology, political science, business, law, and public policy.
Early in the semester the Duke Committee on International Studies awarded a $2,000 grant to what is now more formally known as the "Student- Faculty Forum on Postcommunist Development." Among other things the funds were used to subscribe to weekly English electronic summaries of articles covering economics and politics from some 35 Russian newspapers.
Will Pyle of the Economics Department administers the Forum.
Phil Cook: Received new grant on "The Local Markets for Firearms" from H.F. Guggenheim; renewed grant from NIAAA to study causes and effects of youthful drinking.
Thomas Havrilesky: NSF grant on political influences on monetary policy continues.
Kerry Smith: Received UNC Sea Grant, "Valuing the Protection of the Coastal Environment: The Role of Policy and Resource Attributes," $100,126. Also received NOAA grant, "Measuring the Economic Impacts of Sea Level Rise with Partial Adaptation: A Regional Computable General Equilibrium Model," $399,985.
George Tauchen: Finished work for NSF grant on "Extensions and Refinements of SNP Models for Multiple Time Series." Awarded NSF grant for "Estimation and Visualization of Nonlinear Structural Models," for three years beginning October 1994, $204,435.
W. Kip Viscusi: Completing work on EPA research grant, with Wes Magat, on individual responses to ambiguity. Engaged in joint research with Jay Hamilton, Policy Sciences, for EPA on Superfund.
Mark An: "Local Externalities and the Societal Adoption of Technologies" (with Nick Kiefer), forthcoming, Journal of Evolutionary Economics; "Initial Conditions Problem in Event History Analysis: An Indirect Inference Procedure," forthcoming, Lifetime Data Models in Reliability and Survival Analysis (Kluwer Academic Press, 1994).
Edwin Burmeister: "A Practitioner Guide to Arbitrage Pricing Theory" (with Stephen A. Ross and Richard Roll) forthcoming in The Factor Model Project, published by the Research Foundation of the Institute of Chartered Financial Analysts.
Philip Cook: "The Peculiar Scale Economies of Lotto" (with Charles Clotfelter), American Economic Review.
Neil De Marchi: Edited "Non-Natural Social Science. Reflecting on the Enterprise of More Heat than Light," History of Political Economy 25 (annual supplement), 1993; "History through the lens of 'social' value theory," in above; (with Marina Bianchi) "Institutions Rediscovered" in Cosimo Perrotta, ed., Where is Economics Going? Historical Viewpoints, 1993; edited (with Bert Hamminga) "Idealization in Economics," Poznan Studies 38, 1994, with introduction "Idealization and the Defence of Economics: Notes Toward a History"; (with Hans Van Miegroet) "Art, Value, and Market Practices in the Seventeenth Century," Art Bulletin lxxvi, 1994; edited (with Mary Morgan) "Higgling. Transactors and Their Markets in the History of Economic Thought," History of Political Economy 26 (annual supplement), 1994; (with Paul Harrison) "Trading 'In the Wind', and With Guile. The Troublesome Matter of the Short Selling of Shares in 17th Century Amsterdam," in above.
William Gentry: "Residential Energy Demand and the Taxation of Housing," The Energy Journal, May 1994; "Taxes, Financial Decisions and Organizational Form: Evidence from Publicly Traded Partnerships," Journal of Public Economics, February 1994.
Craufurd Goodwin: ed. International Investment in Human Capital, Institute of International Education, 1993; "The Ph.D. in Economics in the USA: The Recent Debate," Ph.D. Education in Economics in Sub-Saharan Africa: Lessons and Perspectives, African Economic Research Consortium, 1994; "Some Reflections on a Decade of the IIE," Institute for International Economics, forthcoming; ed. (with Smith, Teichler, and Blumenthal) Academic Mobility in a Changing World: Regional and Global Trends, forthcoming; ed. (with Nacht) Beyond Government: Extending the Public Policy Debate in Emerging Democracies, forthcoming; ed. (with Nacht) Talking to Themselves: The Search for Rights and Responsibilities of the Press and Mass Media in Four Latin American Nations, forthcoming.
Henry Grabowski: "Pharmaceuticals and Health Care Costs," Proceedings of the First International Health Care Forum, Health Care Policy and the Pharmaceutical Industry, Gotemba, Japan, 1993; "Returns to R&D on New Drug Introductions in the 1980's" (with John Vernon), Journal of Health Economics, forthcoming; "Innovation and Structural Change in Pharmaceuticals and Biotechnology," (with John Vernon), Industrial and Corporate Change, forthcoming; "Health Care Reform and Pharmaceutical R&D Returns," Robert Helms, ed., Competitive Strategies in the Pharmaceutical Industry, American Enterprise Institute: Washington, D.C., 1994; "Price and Profit Control, New Competitive Dynamics and the Economics of Innovation in the Pharmaceutical Industry," Symposium on Industry Policy, Office of Health Economics, London, forthcoming. Completed a monograph for the American Enterprise Institute on Health Reform and Pharmaceutical Innovation, part of a series of Special Studies in Health Reform. The monograph was the subject of a Roundtable Discussion at the Institute in May 1994, and a related paper also appeared in a symposium on health care reform published in the Seton Hall Law Journal, May 1994.
Thomas Havrilesky: "An Empirical Analysis of Public Choice Aspects of the S&L Disaster," in The Crisis in American Banking, Lawrence White, ed., New York: New York University Press, 1993; "Errors in the Application of Hedonic Damages to Wrongful Death and Personal Injury Litigation," in The Economic Expert in Litigation: 1993, Chicago: Defense Research Institute, 1993; "Partisan Monetary Policies: Presidential Influence through the Power of Appointment," with Henry Chappell and Rob McGregor, Quarterly Journal of Economics, February 1993; "The Misapplication of Hedonic Damages to Wrongful Death and Personal Injury Litigation," Journal of Forensic Economics, June 1993, Reprinted in Defense Law Journal, forthcoming 1994; "Congress Threatens the Fed," Challenge, with Henry Chappell, John Gildea and Rob McGregor, March 1993; "Determinants of Inflationary Performance: Corporatist Structures vs. Central Bank Autonomy," Public Choice, July 1993, with James Granato; "The Politicization of Monetary Policy: The Vice Chairman as Administration Point Man," Cato Journal, Fall 1993; "Life Philosophy: Ethics and Economists," The American Economist, Fall 1993; "The Political Economy of Monetary Policy," European Journal of Political Economy, January 1994; "Outside Influences on Federal Reserve Monetary Policy: A Summary of Recent Findings," Contemporary Policy Issues, forthcoming 1994; "Reforming the Fed," Challenge, forthcoming 1994; Pressures on American Monetary Policy, second revised edition of research monograph, forthcoming, Fall 1994.
Allen C. Kelley: "The Population Factor in Economic Development," Population and Development, The Australian Academy of Science and The Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia, 1993; "Revisionism Revisited: An Essay on the Population Debate in Historical Perspective," Population, Development and Welfare: The Nobel Jubilee Symposium in Economics, ed. Rolf Ohlsson (Berlin: Springer-Verlag), 1993; "La ville et l'espace africain: perspectives, problemes et politiques," Politiques de developpement et croissance demographique rapide en Afrique, ed. Jean-Claude Chasteland, Jacques Vron and Magali Barbieri (Paris: Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, Centre Francais sur la Population et le Developpement), 1993; "Population and Development in Historical Perspective" (with William Paul McGreevey), Population and Development: Old Debates, New Conclusions, ed. Robert Cassen, Overseas Development Council, U.S.-Third World Policy Perspectives (New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Publishers), 1994.
Helen (Sunny) Ladd: "The Case for Equalizing Aid," with John Yinger, National Tax Journal, March 1994; "Spatially Targeted Economic Development Strategies," forthcoming in Vanguard, the research journal of the Department of Housing and Urban Development; "Fiscal Impacts of Local Population Growth: A Conceptual and Empirical Analysis," Regional Science and Urban Economics, forthcoming.
Robert Marshall: "Litigation Settlement and Collusion" (with Michael J. Meurer and Jean-Francois Richard), Quarterly Journal of Economics, February 1994; "Curbing Problems in the Procurement Process by Protest Oversight" (with Michael J. Meurer and Jean-Francois Richard), RAND Journal of Economics, Summer 1994; "Numerical Analysis of Asymmetric First Price Auctions" (with Michael J. Meurer, Jean-Francois Richard, and Walter Stromquist), Games and Economic Behavior, September 1994; "Multiple Potential Protesters with a Public Good Remedy" (with Michael J. Meurer and Jean-Francois Richard), Research in Law and Economics, 1994.
Hervé Moulin: "Cost-Sharing Under Increasing Returns: A Comparison of Simple Mechanisms," forthcoming, Games and Economic Behavior, 1995; "Axiomatic Analysis of Resource Allocation Problems" (with William Thomson), forthcoming, Advances in Social Choice Theory, proceedings of the International Economic Association; "Serial Cost Sharing of Excludable Public Goods," Review of Economic Studies, 1994; "Average Cost Pricing Versus Serial Cost Sharing: An Axiomatic Comparison," with Scott Shenker, Journal of Economic Theory, 1993; "Social Choice," a chapter in the Handbook of Game Theory and Applications, ed. R.J. Aumann and S. Hart, Vol. 2, 1993. Working Papers: "Two Versions of the Tragedy of the Commons" (with Alison Watts), Duke University, 1994; "On Strategy-proof Cost-Sharing," Duke University, 1994.
Frank Sloan: Suing for Medical Malpractice, co-authored with several former colleagues at Vanderbilt, University of Chicago Press, 1993. Completed research on a study of defensive medicine and the effects of tort liability on birth outcomes.
Kerry Smith: "Rethinking Rural Water Supply Policy in the Punjab, Pakistan," Water Resources Research (with M.A. Altaf, Dale Whittington and Haroon Janal) July 1993; "Rethinking the 'Rithmetic' of Damage Assessment," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 1993; "The Evaluation of Natural Resource Adequacy: Elusive Quest or Frontier of Economic Analysis?" Land Economics, August 1980. Reprinted in Resources for the Future reprint series, No. 183. Reprinted this year in The Economics of Exhaustible Resources, Geoffrey Heal, Editor (Cheltenham, Glos., U.K.:Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd. 1993); "Hedonic Models and Air Pollution: Twenty-Five Years and Counting" (with Ju Chin Huang), Environmental and Resource Economics, August 1993; "Cross Country Analyses Don't Estimate Health-Health Responses" (with D.J. Epp and K.A. Schwabe), Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, January 1994; "Temporal Substitution and the Recreational Value of Coastal Amenities" (with R.B. Palmquist), Review of Economics and Statistics, February 1994; "Lightning Rods, Dart Boards and Contingent Valuation," Natural Resources Journal, Winter 1994.
George Tauchen: "Nonlinear Dynamic Structures" (with Gallant and Rossi), Econometrica, 1993; "Computational Aspects of Nonparametric Structural Estimation" (with Bansal, Gallant, and Hussey), Computational Economics, 1993; "Nonparametric Estimation of Structural Models for High Frequency Currency Market Data," Journal of Econometrics, 1994. Continued as Editor of the Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.
Vladimir G. Treml: "Dve pozitsii," Voprosy Ekonomiki, Issues in Economics, Moscow, 1993; "Alcoholism and Drunkenness," The Cambridge Encyclopedia of Russia and the Soviet Union, London and New York: Cambridge University Press, 1994; "The Growth of the Second Economy in the Soviet Union and Its Impact on the System" (with Michael Alexeev), ed. Robert Campbell, The Postcommunist Economic Transformation, Westview Press, Boulder, 1994; "Problems with Soviet Statistics: Past and Present," ed. Charles Wolf, Jr. and Henry S. Rowen, Defense Conversion, Economics Reforms and The Outlook for Russia and Ukraine, St. Martin's Press, New York, 1994.
John Vernon: Economics of Regulation and AntitrustJournal of Health Economics, November 1994; "Prospects for Returns to Pharmaceutical R&D Under Health Care Reform" (with Henry Grabowski), ed. Robert Helms, Competitive Strategies in the Pharmaceutical Industry (Washington, D.C.: American Enterprise Institute), forthcoming 1995.
W. Kip Viscusi: Economics of Regulation and Antitrust, a 1992 textbook with John Vernon and Joe Harrington, has been adopted by 84 schools, including Stanford, Berkeley, Northwestern, Harvard, Michigan, Princeton, Cornell, Rochester, and the University of Virginia; the American Enterprise Institute published a monograph on Product-Risk Labeling: A Federal Responsibility, which deals with the appropriate structure of cancer risk warnings and the affect of state regulations on this policy area; edited a special issue of the Journal of Risk and Uncertainty and contributed two papers, where this special issue is going to be published as a book, The Mortality Costs of Regulatory Expenditures, forthcoming, Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1994. Articles: "Improving the Analytical Basis for Regulatory Decision-Making," Paris: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, 1992; "Product Liability, Research and Development, and Innovation," with Michael J. Moore, Journal of Political Economy, February 1993; "The Effect of 1980s Tort Reform Legislation on General Liability and Medical Malpractice Insurance," with R. Zeckhauser, P. Born, and G. Blackmon, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 1993; "Liability," in David Henderson, ed., Fortune Encyclopedia of Economics, New York: Warner Books, 1993; "Job Safety," in David Henderson, ed., Fortune Encyclopedia of Economics, New York: Warner Books, 1993; "The Consumer Welfare Effects of Liability for Pain and Suffering: Discussion," Microeconomics 1, 1993: Brookings Papers on Economic Activity; "Income Effects and the Value of Health," with William Evans, Journal of Human Resources, Summer 1993; "The Risky Business of Insurance Pricing," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Wharton Symposium on Making Decisions about Liability and Insurance, August 1993; "The Value of Risks to Life and Health," Journal of Economic Literature, December 1993; "Cigarette Warnings: The Perils of the Cipollone Decision," Supreme Court Economic Review, 1994; "The Misspecified Agenda: Health, Safety and Environmental Regulation in the 1980's," in Martin Feldstein, ed., American Economic Policy in the 1980's, Chicago: University of Chicago Press for National Bureau of Economic Research, 1994; "The Fatality and Injury Costs of Expenditures," with Richard J. Zeckhauser, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, January 1994; "Risk-Risk Analysis," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, January 1994; "Mortality Effects of Regulatory Costs and Policy Evaluation Criteria," RAND Journal of Economics, Spring 1994; "Superfund and Real Risks," with James T. Hamilton, The American Enterprise, March/April 1994; "Information As Regulation," Paris: Organization for Economics Cooperation and Development, 1994; "A Statistical Profile of Pharmaceutical Industry Liability, 1976-1989," with Michael J. Moore and James Albright, Seton Hall Law Review, 1994; "Deterring Inefficient Pharmaceutical Litigation: An Economic Rationale for the FDA Regulatory Compliance Defense," with Steven R. Rowland, Howard L. Dorfman, and Charles J. Walsh, Seton Hall Law Review, 1994, and reprinted in Specialty Law Digest: Health Care; "Efficacy of Labeling of Foods and Pharmaceuticals," Annual Review of Public Health, 1994; "Environmentally Responsible Energy Pricing," with Wesley Magat, Alan Carlin, and Mark Dreyfus, The Energy Journal, Summer 1994; "The Performance of the Liability Reform Experiments: New York and Colorado," Journal of Products and Toxics Liability, with Patricia Born, 1994; "The National Implications of Liability Reforms for General Liability and Medical Malpractice Insurance," Seton Hall Law Review, with Patricia Born, June 1994; "Insurance Market Responses to the 1980s Liability Reforms: An Analysis of Firm-Level Data," with Patricia Born, Journal of Risk and Insurance, June 1994; "The General Liability Reform Experiments and the Distribution of Insurance Market Outcomes," with Patricia Born, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics; "Energy Taxation as a Policy Instrument to Reduce CO2 Emissions: A Net Benefit Analysis," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, with Roy Boyd and Kerry Krutilla, January 1995; The Effect of Product Safety Regulations on Safety Precautions," with Gerald O. Cavallo, Risk Analysis; "A Reference Lottery Metric for Valuing Health," with Wesley Magat and Joel Huber, Management Science; "Human Health Risk Assessments for Superfund," with James T. Hamilton, Ecology Law Quarterly, August 1994; "The Magnitude and Policy Implications of Health Risks from Hazardous Waste Sites, with James T. Hamilton, in R. Revesz and R. Stewart, eds., Understanding Superfund: Reauthorization and Beyond (Washington: Resources for the Future, 1994); "Equivalent Frames of Reference for Judging Risk Regulation Policies, Environmental Law Journal, December 1994.
E. Roy Weintraub: "Contextualizing Equilibrium: A Review Essay," Research in the History of Economic Thought and Methodology, in press, 1994; "The Pure and the Applied: Bourbakism Comes to Mathematical Economics" (with Philip Mirowski), Science in Context, in press, 1994; "Is 'Is a Precursor of' a Transitive Relation?," South Atlantic Quarterly, in press, 1995.
William P. Yohe: Interactive Money and Banking (Cambridge, MA: Blackwell Publishers, October 1994), includes text, book of readings, and software (PC and Mac versions); Readings to Accompany Interactive Money and Banking, ed. (Blackwell, 1994); Interactive Intermediate Macroeconomics (with Guy Judge, Portsmouth Polytechnic), a text, readings, and software, forthcoming (Blackwell, 1995).
Mark An: ASSA annual meetings, Anaheim, California, January 1993; Program Committee of Chinese Economists Society Annual Meeting, Minneapolis, August 1993; ASSA annual meetings, Boston 1994; First International Symposium on Information, Computer and Control of Young Scientists, Beijing, February 1994; ASSA annual meetings, Boston 1994; International Research Conference on Lifetime Data Models in Reliability and Survival Analysis, Boston, 1994; Econometric Society Summer Meetings, Quebec City, June 1994. Presented "Duration Dependence, Endogenous Search and Structural Analysis of Labor Market Histories," International Conference on Micro-Econometrics of Dynamic Decision Making, Tilburg University, the Netherlands, May 1994.
Martin Bronfenbrenner: Travelled during June 1994 in search of his family's roots in what is now the Ukraine, and incidentally observed the Ukranian hyper-inflation in progress.
Edwin Burmeister: Invited speaker, Berkeley Symposium in Finance, Palm Springs, California, March 1994;, New York University Salomon Center for Finance, New York, May 1994; Institutional Investor Quantitative Roundtable, New York, May 1994.
Philip Cook: Presented two lectures on "Winner-Take-All Markets" and "Economics of Drinking" at Odense University in Denmark, May 1993.
Neil De Marchi: Presented a paper on Fashion and Consumption at a conference in Bergamo, Italy, May 1994; presented a paper on Quesnay at a tercentenary celebration in Versailles, June 1994; presented a paper on Dutch art auctions and lotteries at the meetings of the Association of Cultural Economists, Witten, Germany, August 1994.
William Gentry: Presented "Franchising and the Dilution of Ownership of Intangible Assets," NBER Conference on Cooperation, Coordination, and Collusion among Firms, Cambridge, MA, May 1993; "Taxes and Fringe Benefits Offered by Employees," mini-conference on Taxation, University of Texas, Austin, June 1994; "State Tax Structure and Multiple Policy Objectives" (with Helen Ladd), National Tax Association Session at ASSA Meeting, Boston, January 1994; "The Child Care Tax Credit" (with Alison Hagy), American Economic Association Meeting, Boston, January 1994; "Taxes and Saving Through Annuities," Western Economics Association Meeting, Vancouver, June 1994. Discussant: National Bureau of Economic Research Conference on International Taxation, Cambridge, MA, January 1994; National Bureau of Economic Research Public Economics Program Meeting, Cambridge, MA, April 1994; Tax Policy Research Symposium, University of Michigan, April 1994.
Henry Grabowski: Spoke before the National Health Care Administration in Budapest, Hungary, on the rational reimbursement and utilization of pharmaceuticals, April 1994. Presented "Pharmaceuticals and Quality of Life--An Economist's Perspective" to the Forum Engelberg, headquartered in the Benedictine Abbey in Engelberg, Switzerland, and sponsor of an international conference on public policy issues. This year's forum focused on Chemicals and the Quality of Life. Gave talks to the Office of Health Economics on "The New Competitive Dynamics in the Global Pharmaceutical Industry" and to the Center for Medicine Research on "Health Care Reform in the United States," London, England, Summer 1994.
Thomas Havrilesky: Invited speaker in Hamburg, Dusseldorf, Bonn, Frankfurt, Munich, Stockholm, and Brussels before governmental bodies and central bankers regarding the Clinton deficit-reduction proposal, April-May 1993; this trip was sponsored and organized by the United States Information Agency. Spoke on "Model of Optimal European Central Bank Restructuring" at universities in Konstanz, Saarbrucken, Mannheim, and St. Gallen and at the German Central Bank (the Bundesbank). Organized sessions and presented papers at the Western Economics Association meetings, Tahoe, 1993, and Vancouver, 1994; and at the Southern Economic Association meeting, New Orleans, 1993. Attended AEA meetings, Boston, 1994. Invited speaker: National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA, July 1993; and Defense Institute Research seminar, New Orleans, May 1994.
Allen C. Kelley: Delivered "Population, Development, and Australian Policies," the plenary address for the Australian Academy of Sciences, Canberra, Australia; "What's New in Population Research: The Road to Cairo," University of Indonesia; "The National Academy Report: An Update," East-West Center, University of Hawaii.
Marjorie McElroy: Presented papers at meetings of the Institute for Research on Poverty's Working Group, "Problems of the Low-Income Population," University of Wisconsin, February 1994; delivered "Marriage Markets and Cooperative Bargaining," AEA annual meeting, January 1994; presented "Resources, Marriage Markets, and the Intrahousehold Distribution of Income" at an international conference on "Changing Family Structure," Bologna, Italy, October 1994; will participate in the AEA Roundtable on Economics and the Family, January 1995.
Hervé Moulin: Lectured at the Universities of Rotterdam, January 1993; University of Tilburg, Netherlands, January 1993; University of Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium, February 1993; University of Lausanne, February 1993; University Autonoma de Barcelona, May 1993; University of Toulouse, May 1993; University of Bielefield, Germany, May 1993; Hebrew University of Jerusalem, June 1993; and University of Tel Aviv, July 1993. Also visited University of Washington in St. Louis, October 1993; University of Waterloo, November 1993; China University and National Tsing Hua University, Taiwan, December 1993; University of Waterloo, Ontario, March 1994; University of California, Irvine, Institute for Mathematical Behavioral Sciences, April 1994; UCLA, for the Jacob Marschak Colloquium on Mathematics in the Behavioral Sciences, April 1994; Ohio State University, May 1994; Kyoto Institute of Economic Research, June 1994; Hitotsubashi University and Tsukuba University, Toyoko, July 1994; Virginia Tech, October 1994; Lehigh University, October 1994; University of Pennsylvania, October 1994; Tokyo University, November 1994; Keio University in Tokyo for the first Decentralization Conference in Japan, November 1994. Invited speaker of the Round Table on Social Choice, International Management Institute, Austria, May 1994; Fourth Summer Conference on Economic Theory, organized by the Tokyo Center for Economic Research at Tadeshina (Nagano) Japan, July 1994. Organizer and participant, Econometric Society summer meetings, Quebec City, June 1994; Second international conference of the Society for Social Choice and Welfare, University of Rochester, New York, July 1994.
Frank Sloan: Visited Sri Linka as an advisor to the Ministry of Health, May 1994.
Kerry Smith: Presented two papers at AEA, served as discussant in four other sessions, and presented remarks as member of the AEA Panel on Research Implications of NOAA Report on Contingent Valuation, January 1994. Delivered "Calibrated Nonmarket Valuation," Workshop at Resources for the Future, March 1994; "Natural Resource Damage Liability: Lessons from Implementation and Impacts on Incentives," a presentation to lawyers and policy analysts, University of Nebraska; "Incorporating Environmental Public Goods into CGE Models" to Department of Agricultural Economics, March 1994; Summary of research on "Measuring Use and Nonuse Value from Controlling Marine Debris" at International Marine Debris Conference, Miami (with Xiaolong Zhang, NCSU Ph.D. candidate), May 1994; Invited paper at International Conference in Bad Homburg, Germany, "Determining the Value of Non-Marketed Goods: Economics, Psychological, and Policy Relevant Aspects of Contingent Valuation Methods," sponsored by University of Saarland, University of Michigan, and the Fritz Thyssen Foundation, July 1994; "Does Education Produce Environmental Quality?", The Environmental and Experimental Economics Forum, Georgia State University, November 1994. Conducted a training workshop on contingent valuation for Center for Disease Control, Atlanta (conducted with D. Whittington, UNC), June 1994. Will present "Social Benefits of Education: The Environment" at agenda setting conference for new research, sponsored by Office of Research of U.S. Department of Education, January 1995.
George Tauchen: Research seminars at the following institutions--MIT-Harvard Joint Econometrics Seminar, March 1993; Econometrics Seminar, University of Virginia, March 1993; Econometrics Seminar, University of Illinois, April 1993; Econometrics Seminar, University of Montreal, October 1993; Finance Seminar, Graduate School of Business, Stanford University, March 1994; Finance Seminar, Haas School of Business, University of California- Berkeley, March 1994; Finance Seminar, Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, March 1994; Econometrics Seminar, University of Iowa, April 1994; Finance Workshop, London Business School, May 1994; Econometrics Workshop, Cornell University, October 1994. Delivered papers at the Econometric Dynamics and Control Meeting, Nafplio, Greece, June 1993. Conference on Semiparametric Methods, University of Lausanne, Switzerland, June 1993; Workshop on Nonparametric and Semiparametric Methods, University of California-Berkeley, August 1993; Annual Meeting of the American Statistical Association, San Francisco, August 1993; NSF/NBER Time Series Seminar, Institute for Advanced Studies, University of Vienna and NBER, Austria, October 1993; Conference on Nonlinearities and Asymmetries in Time Series, Madrid, Spain, January 1994; NBER Research Meeting on GMM Estimation, Stanford University, February 1994; Conference on Multivariate Financial Volatility, San Diego, April 1994. Participated in "Econometrics in Tel Aviv," Tel Aviv University, June 1994. Co-organized with Eric Ghysels an international conference on "Stochastic Volatility," CIRANO/University of Montreal, October 1994. Attended Annual Meeting of the American Statistical Association, Toronto, August 1994. Will attend the EC2 conference at Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany, December 1994. Invited to give lectures on "Financial Econometrics," Vienna, December 1995.
W. Kip Viscusi: Delivered presentations on Superfund to the Business Roundtable, Washington, January and February 1993; attended National Conference on Workers' Compensation sponsored by Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government, February 1993; Lectured on his book Smoking: Making the Risky Decision, February 1993; served as paper discussant for Calfee and Whinston on the Brookings Microeconomics Panel, Spring 1993; attended NBER conference on the economics of insurance, March 1993; participated in NBER meetings, Cambridge and New York, June and December 1993; presented "Environmentally Responsible Energy Pricing" at the conference on energy and global warning, MIT, May 1993; presented a paper on risk perception and risk regulation, George Mason University, Washington, D.C., May 1993; presented paper on risk analysis, American Industrial Health Council Conference, May 1993; taught programs for federal judges, Hilton Head, June 1993 and March 1994; delivered keynote speech, "The Mortality Costs of Environmental Regulation," European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, Summer 1993; presented "The Effects of the 1980s Liability Reforms on Liability Insurance," with Patricia Born, American Risk and Insurance meetings, San Francisco, August 1993; delivered Smith Endowed Chair of Economics Lectures, Brigham Young University, Fall 1993; presented "The Death Risk Lottery Metric for Valuing Health Risks," Indiana University, Fall 1993; presented "A Statistical Profile of Pharmaceutical Industry Liability" and "Responsible Reform of Punitive Damages," conference at Seton Hall School of Law, November 1993; presented "Human Health Risk Assessments for Superfund," with Jay Hamilton, conference at NYU Law School, December 1993; presented "Regulatory Expenditures and Economic Criteria for Assessing Risk Regulations," America Economic Association, Janaury 1994; presented "Human Health Risks of Superfund, Harvard Regulation Seminar, March 1994, and American Enterprise Institute, June 1994; presented "Information as Regulation: The Role of the Educated Consumer," conference on regulation at the OECD, Paris, May 1994; presented "Cigarette Taxes and Smoking Behavior," National Tax Association, Washington, D.C., May 1994; served on the External Review Committee for the Public Management Program, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, May 1994; attended annual meeting of the Board of Directors of the Risk and Decision Processes Center, Wharton School, May 1994.
Dennis Yang: Chaired a session on labor and agricultural economics at an international symposium on "China's Economic Development and the Impact on the Pacific Rim and World Economy," Chicago, August 1994. Presented "Education in Production: Measuring Labor Quality and Management," University of Chicago, February 1994, and the annual conference of the Chinese Economists Society, August 1994. Delivered "Educational Selectivity of Family Farm Labor Supply: The Role of Knowledge Spillovers," "China's Land Arrangements and Rural Labor Mobility," and "Food Availability, Entitlements and the Chinese Famine of 1959-61" (with Justin Lin), Duke University.
William P. Yohe: Presented "Microcomputer Programs as Focus for Economics Instruction," American Economic Association meetings, where for the fifth consecutive year he co-chaired the computer-assisted instruction sessions, January 1994.
The largest matriculating class in Economics arrived this Fall, with 27 Ph.D. candidates and 15 Masters students. This class is also the largest entering Ph.D. class in all departments of the Graduate School.
Of the 42 new students, 26 are from foreign countries, representing China, Denmark, the Dominican Republic, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Russia, Taiwan, and Thailand.
One student has been awarded a James B. Duke Fellowship. The average GPA for the incoming Ph.D. class is 3.65; the average QGRE is 776.
Congratulations to the new Economics Department Ph.D.'s for 1994. Their new places of employment, thesis titles, and supervisors appear below:
Steven Backes, Assistant Professor, University of Hong Kong, "A Bayesian Model of Price Discovery of the New York Exchange Rates" (Dan Graham).
Laura Baldwin, Economist, RAND, "Essays on Auctions and Procurements" (Robert Marshall).
Keith Bender, Visiting Assistant Professor, University of Aberdeen, "The Changing Determinants of Unionism: An Inquiry Into The Industry Characteristics of U.S. Manufacturing" (James Baumgardner).
Patricia Born, Economist, American Medical Association, Center for Health Policy Research, "Essays on Insurance Regulation and Insolvency: Empirical Evidence From the Property-Casualty Insurance Industry" (W. Kip Viscusi).
Alison Hagy, Assistant Professor, Pomona College, "Child Care Quality: Hedonic Prices, Demand, and the Effects of Government Subsidization" (Marjorie McElroy).
Bridget Hiedemann, Assistant Professor, Seattle University, "Retirement Decisions in Dual Career Households: Development and Estimation of a Stackelberg Model" (Marjorie McElroy).
Michael Lail, Assistant Professor, Sweet Briar College, "The Failure of Frisch's Vision: Frustrated Attempts to Integrate Statistical and Analytical Approaches in Econometrics 1930-1960" (Neil De Marchi).
Jens Ludwig, Assistant Professor, Graduate Public Policy Program, Georgetown University, "Information and Inner City Educational Attainment" (Charles Clotfelter).
Kimberly Neuhauser, Staff Economist, Development Alternatives, Inc., "Informal Credit in Russia" (Vladimir Treml).
Christopher Taylor, International Economist, U.S. International Trade Commission, "An Inquiry into Firm Profitability Using the Cash Recovery Method: An Application to Pharmaceuticals" (John Vernon).
Harry Huibing Zhang, Assistant Professor, Carnegie Mellon, "Explaining Financial Data in a Heterogenous Agent Environment" (George Tauchen).
A team of graduate students working with Professor Treml was a part of the University of California, Berkeley-Duke consortium studying the "second" or underground economy in the former Soviet Union, sponsored by the Wharton Econometrics Group. A total of 35 "Berkeley-Duke Occasional Papers on the Second Economy in the USSR" were edited at Duke and published and distributed by Wharton. Professors Grossman (Berkeley), Treml, and Alexeev (Indiana, Duke Ph.D., 1984) served as general editors, and Kim Neuhauser served as the technical editor. Duke graduate students and faculty contributed 19 of the 35 issues. Although funding for the project ended in 1992, the interest in second economy studies was sufficient for Wharton to agree to publish several more occasional papers.
Erik Weissman was awarded the Department of Education, Title VI, FLAS Scholarship for 1994-95 by Duke's Center for Slavic, East European and Eurasian Studies. Will Pyle was the recipient of this scholarship for 1993-94. The FLAS program pays the full Duke graduate tuition and a stipend. Duke's Center is expecting to have three FLAS scholarships for 1995-96; contact Professor Treml, Director of the Center, for more information.
Arthur L. Moses, Ph.D. 1975, died in a tragic accident in November 1993. After receiving his degree, he worked for five years as an economic analyst at the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe in Geneva and then moved to Fort Lauderdale, Florida, where he became a successful resort area developer. He is survived by his wife Dale and three daughters, Ashleigh, Robin and Sydney.
Mark An has been elected to serve on the editorial board of the CAASS Journal for 1993-95.
Thomas Havrilesky is President-elect of Omicron Delta Epsilon, the international honor society, for 1994-1996. Havrilesky was also recently appointed as Visiting Professor at the University of Mannheim for Spring 1995.
Kerry Smith is serving on the Advisory Committee on Benefit Cost Analysis for Environmental Rules, Department of Environment, Health, and National Resources. He is also on the Fisheries Moratorium Steering Committee of the North Carolina House of Representatives.
Professor Treml was engaged by the World Bank as a reviewer of the Bank's special statistical compendium for newly independent states of the former USSR and of Eastern Europe. Gregory Kisunko, a graduate student, spent last summer working on the compilation and verification of economic statistics for the compendium. Both Treml and Kisunko saw a marginal improvement in the coverage and reliability of data compared to the previous year, but note that the former Soviet republics have a long way to go before their economic statistics meet minimal international standards.
Allen Kelley is a member of the Government of Australia's "Inquiry Into the Consequences of Population Growth," concluding with a presentation in Canberra in April.
Kip Viscusi continues to serve on two EPA Science Advisory Boards--the Environmental Economics Advisory Council and the Clean Air Act Compliance Analysis Council. Each of these activities involves a major outside commitment and several trips to Washington. He also continued to serve as an adjunct fellow to the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research, as a member of the Corresponding Group on Safety Policy of the Royal Society of Canada and Canadian Academy of Engineering, and he was appointed as an adjunct scholar at the American Enterprise Institute.
Frank Sloan co-organized a half-day conference, with Clark Havighurst of Duke Law School, on "Regional Health Alliances," held at Duke in April 1994.
Helen Ladd, Professor of Public Policy Studies and Economics, is a visiting Senior Fellow in the Economic Studies Program at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C., for 1994-95. She is also currently president of the National Tax Association.
Professor Henry Grabowski testified on the impact of the Clinton Administration's Health Security Act on Pharmaceutical Innovation before Congressman Waxman's subcommittee on Health and the Environment on February 8, 1994.
A special session of the AEA annual meeting was held in January 1993 to honor H. Gregg Lewis, whose widow Julia Lewis and son John were present. Participants included Walter Oi (University of Rochester), Richard Freeman (Harvard), Orley Ashenfelter (Princeton), Sherwin Rosen (University of Chicago), and Marjorie McElroy (Duke). The presented papers on Lewis's contributions to the economics of unionism and to employee hours of work and labor supply, his pervasive influence as a teacher, and his mellow years at Duke. These papers were published in the January 1994 issue of the Journal of Labor Economics.
At the same meetings a banquet was held in honor of the first H. Gregg Lewis Prize, awarded biannually to the author of the best article in the Journal of Labor Economics. This award is especially fitting as Professor Lewis's article, "Union Relative Wage Effects: A Survey of the Macro Estimates," was the lead article in the first issue of that journal, January 1983. Finis Welsh and others spoke in honor of Lewis.
Marjorie George and Forrest Smith edited this issue of Economics at Duke. Thanks to Professors Daniel Graham, Justin Lin, Marjorie McElroy, Hervé Moulin, Pietro Perretto, Ed Tower, and Kip Viscusi for their contributions and to Joyce Hemphill, Jean Hyslop, and Rhonda Wioskowski for assistance with production.
If you would like to begin receiving this publication electronically, please send e-mail to fls@econ.duke.edu. Other submissions and inquiries can be mailed to Newsletter Editor, Department of Economics, Box 90097, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708-0097.