Abstract: In this paper, we
estimate establishment-level productivity for the entire U.S.
manufacturing sector from 1976 until 1996 by using the Census Bureau's
Longitudinal Research Database combined with the Bureau's Longitudinal Business
Database. We characterize the time series properties of establishment-level
idiosyncratic shocks to productivity, taking into account aggregate
economy-wide and industry-level shocks. We use simulated method of moments
estimation to control for short sample bias and to isolate estimation errors
from underlying plant heterogeneity. We find considerable within-industry
heterogeneity across plants in terms of the size and persistence of their
productivity shocks. Surprisingly, we also find that the average persistence
and variability of plant-specific TFP shocks are similar to the average
persistence and variability of the aggregate/industry shocks.
Abstract: This paper uses
confidential 1990 and 2000 Decennial Census Long Form data to study the demographic
processes underlying the gentrification of poor urban neighborhoods during the
1990’s. In contrast to previous studies, the analysis is conducted at the more
refined census-tract level with a narrower definition of gentrification and
more narrowly defined comparison neighborhoods. The analysis is also richly
disaggregated by demographic characteristics, uncovering differential patterns
by race, education, age and family structure that would not have emerged in the
more aggregate analysis in previous studies. The results provide little
evidence of displacement of poor non-white households in gentrifying
neighborhoods. The bulk of the income gains in gentrifying neighborhoods are
attributed to white college graduates and black high school graduates. It is
the disproportionate in-migration of the former and the disproportionate
retention and income gains of the latter that appear to be the main engines of
gentrification.
·Multiple
Imputation in the Annual Survey of Manufactures, in
progress.withJerry
Reiterand Amil
Petrin
Abstract:
this paper uses new data and new methods to identify and deal with missing data
in the confidential U.S.
manufacturing data._ We find that among plants that are sent a survey form, on
average 20 to 46 percent of observations of key variables are imputed by the
Census Bureau._ This is a huge problem for researchers who use the U.S.
manufacturing microdata._ We apply the Sequential Regression Multivariate
Imputation method (Raghunathan et al., 2001) to multiply impute missing
values._ We find that industry means based on our multiple imputations tend to
be closer to the true means (based on real data in which we create artificially
missing observations) than estimates from the data imputed using the Census
Bureau’s cold-deck method._ Further, we find that our estimated confidence
intervals tend to be wider than the confidence intervals from the single
cold-deck imputed data, and our confidence intervals are more likely to cover
the confidence intervals from the real data.
Abstract: I
investigate the effects of the Tax Reform Act of 1986 on the U.S.
wealth distribution in a model in which heterogeneous agents face idiosyncratic
labor income risk and hold an asset. The model's stochastic process for
earnings is consistent with estimates from panel data. I calibrate the model to
match the U.S. wealth
distribution and the progressive U.S.
income tax structure before and after the reform. The reform increases the
after-tax return to savings and labor more for wealthy households than for wealth-poor
households. As a result, I find that the tax reform can account for nearly all
of the increase in wealth inequality observed in the data.
·Portfolio
Choice and the Wealth Distribution, in progress,withKatherine Smith
Abstract: We build a model
of housing and equity portfolio choice and match key facts regarding asset
holdings and the distribution of wealth in the U.S.
Publications
·Initial
Conditions at Emancipation: the Long Run Effect on Black-White Wealth and
Earnings Inequality. (October 2007, Journal
of Economic Dynamics and Control ) Abstract:
Black-white wealth inequality is much greater than black-white earnings
inequality in the United
States. The existing empirical literature has
not been able to fully explain the wealth gap. This paper investigates how much
of current black-white income and wealth inequality can be explained by initial
conditions at Emancipation and nearly 100 years of segregated schools. A
two-sector model with group-specific human capital accumulation and school
expenditure differences can explain the path of black-white convergence in
earnings over the past 130 years. The model also reproduces the fact that
black-white wealth ratios remain much lower than black-white earnings ratios.
·Inequality and the Case for Redistribution: Aristotle
to Sen. (International Review of Economics and Business, June 2005) Abstract: This essay examines how several prominent
economic thinkers have answered the question ``To what extent should society
promote economic equality?" The answer changes significantly over the history
of economic thought. For Aristotle, equality of wealth should be promoted for
the stability of the city-state. John Stuart Mill uses Utilitarian principles
to equate greater equality with greater happiness. Vilfredo Pareto argues that
greater income inequality is better for society because inequality weeds out
society's ``inferior" elements through starvation and disease. Finally,
Amartya Sen argues that we should focus on equality of capabilities and
``functionings."
Research Links
·Center for Economic
Studies, U.S. Census Bureau--through the Triangle Census Research Data Center
at Duke (as well as at other RDCs around the U.S.), the Census Bureau offers
qualified researchers restricted access to confidential economic and
demographic data collected by the Census Bureau in its surveys, censuses and
administrative records._ For approved projects the RDCs also provide
researchers restricted access to National
Center for Health Statistics data and Agency
for Healthcare Research and Quality data._ All of these tremendously rich
datasets make it possible to do economic and social science research which was
previously impossible.
My
C.V. (pdf file)